The tropical storm RAFAEL intensified into a hurricane yesterday. It made landfall in Cuba as a Cat-3 hurricane with devastating potential. The storm has since weakened after hitting the landmass of Cuba. It is likely to retain the strength of a Cat-2 hurricane for another 36 hours and weaken to a tropical storm on entering the Gulf of Mexico.
The track of the storm, as such, was a contentious issue. Now, looks like, the hurricane will steer hard to the west, after entering the Gulf of Mexico. In such a case, Florida will escape a direct hit but still remain vulnerable to heavy rains around this weekend.
The cooler sea surface temperatures are reducing the heat potential and therefore, weakening the storm, while over open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It may head for the northeastern coast of Mexico and lose steam, much before making up to the coastline for landfall.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, with seven of these to be hurricanes and three to be major hurricanes. The NOAA predicted the hurricane season 2024 to be above average with 17-25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Though, the season has no strict bounds but officially ends in November.