Intensity and frequency of Western Disturbance usually starts increasing from December for late November onward. Although, Western Disturbance starts approaching Western Himalayas from month of October and continues until February or March.
This year we have not witnessed any intense Western Disturbance which would have dumped heavy snowfall over entire Western Himalayas. A moderate intensity Western Disturbance was seen during late October and another during initial period of November. Since then, hills are waiting for an active Western Disturbance and subsequent snowfall.
The weather of entire Northwest India including Western Himalayas remained dry since last two weeks. Now, a fresh Western Disturbance is going to approach which may give light rain and snow with one or two moderate spells on December 26 and 27. Uttarakhand which has not witnessed any significant weather activities in the last month, may also receive light rain or snow. Weather we will go dry once again and we do not expect any weather activity until year end.
In the absence of heavy snowfall, we do not expect temperatures of Northwest and Central India to drop much, therefore we have to wait a little longer for severe winters.
