We are now at the fag end of November but until now heavy snowfall has eluded western Himalayas. Western disturbance starts travelling in lower latitudes and reaches Western Himalayas from the month of October and continues until February or March.
A moderate intensity Western disturbance approached Western Himalayas in the third week of October and has given moderate snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir. Three to four Western Disturbances approached hills in November, but they failed to give heavy snowfall. We do not expect any intense Western Disturbance approaching Western Himalayas until first week of December.
Whenever a strong Western disturbance reaches Western Himalayas, it usually induces cyclonic circulation over northern plains. Winter rain happens due to induced cyclonic circulation over northern plains. Hills are waiting for heavy snowfall and northern plains for winter rains. Wait can be over by second week of December.
Temperatures will not drop significantly until then. Winter rains will increase humidity leading to formation of fog over plains and subsequent fall in maximums.
