Northeast Monsoon has remained on the backfoot for the last 5 days. There has been minimal or even nil rainfall activity over South Peninsula, the bastion of winter monsoon. Prior to that, vigorous monsoon activity was observed in many pockets of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka, between 11th and 15th Nov. Near silence followed this rage of weather, of course with signs of revival anytime soon.
Presently, a depression is lying over Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) with its associated cloud field reaching coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Deep convection of dense cloud mass is still parked away from landmass and significant weather activity will remain confined over the Sea for another 12hr. As the circulation moves closer, spike in weather activity is likely over North Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka have all lowered their observed seasonal rainfall by 5-6%, during the last 5 days. Even, Pan India surplus of 35% till 15th Nov has now dropped to 29%. Practically, zero rainfall was witnessed over most parts of South India over the last 2 days. Light rainfall has been observed in the past 24hr along the east coast from Chennai to Kakinada, across Kavali, Ongole, Bapatla and Machilipatnam.
Depression will move near the coastline of North Tamil Nadu in the next 24hr. Though, the weather system is likely to weaken, but still lash Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh with moderate to heavy showers at many places bracing the coast. Deep inland, the weather activity may not be intense, but moderate rain and thundershowers are likely over Rayalaseema, interior Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and state of Kerala. Overall, Northeast Monsoon is likely to recover from sluggish to active phase, albeit only till start of week end.
