Mumbai has been eagerly awaiting the onset of Monson 2016, which is already running behind schedule by a week. Now, a fresh Monsoon system has developed in Bay of Bengal that has once again increased the hopes for arrival of Monsoon over the capital city of Maharashtra.
Here’s a fact, it is not necessary for Monsoon to make a thumping start every year. There have been occasions when Monsoon has made a soft arrival over the city and this season seems to be falling in that category.
The arrival of Monsoon over the city has also kept weather forecasters on their toes. According to AVM G P Sharma, President-Meteorology, Skymet Weather, “The weather systems coming up in Indian seas this season are of truant behavior. They initially give hope but subsequently show withdrawal symptoms.”
The normal onset date of the Southwest Monsoon over Mumbai is June 10. Skymet Weather had earlier anticipated the arrival of Monsoon rains between June 12 and June 14. This prediction was made on account of a strong cyclonic circulation in Arabian Sea off the Karnataka and Goa coast, which had initially shown promising signs of intensifying further and moving along the Maharashtra coast.
But the presence of anti-cyclonic circulation in Arabian Sea suppressed the growth of the system, which died down in the sea itself.
As mentioned above, another cyclonic circulation has formed in west-central Bay of Bengal, which is likely to move inland anytime. As the system moves westwards, it will activate the off-shore trough running along the West Coast, resulting in increase in rains right from Kerala up to Konkan & Goa.
But the question still remains the same that will this be able to pull off the famous Mumbai Monsoon rains. “The ideal situation for heavy showers over Mumbai is the formation of a strong weather system in the North Bay of Bengal,” said GP Sharma.
On the contrary, this system has developed in ‘West-central’ Bay of Bengal in close proximity to the coast and will possibly travel inland. Thus, it will not allow it to strengthen as much as it could have, had it developed in the deep sea. According to weathermen, the system will become slightly weak by the time it reaches Madhya Maharashtra.
Moreover, the geographical features of Konkan region are such that they do not respond much to any system till the time it travels closer. Though the system will activate the Monsoon current, bringing moderate rains over the city but the renowned 3-digit Mumbai rains may not be seen this time.
We could see cloudy skies from June 18, with chances of light patchy rains. With the system inching closer, both intensity and spread of rains will increase around June 19 and June 20 thus Mumbai could witness some good showers. Thereafter on and off showers will continue over Mumbai for the next 10 days.
Image credit: en.wikipedia.org
Any information taken from here should be attributed to skymetweather.com
