The four-month-long Southwest Monsoon is a mix of bursts and lull periods. The pace of Southwest Monsoon has inter-seasonal and intraseasonal variations as far as the pace is concerned.
In Central India, the variability of Monsoon is quite high. Konkan region is one of the rainiest pockets during all the four months of the Monsoon season.
As far as the upcoming Monsoon 2018 is concerned, states including Central Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are expected to witness good Monsoon rains which means on the higher side of the normal rains (normal rainfall is considered to be +/-19 percent). Good rainfall is also expected over areas of Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, and North Marathwada. Meanwhile, Gujarat will have to settle with normal rains only.
[yuzo_related]
Thus, cities of Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik, Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Raipur are expected to witness above normal rains. Normal rains are expected over Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Rajkot, and Surat.
Talking about Monsoon during the last two years, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh saw Monsoon rains on the lower side last year while 2016 was good for these areas. Also, Chhattisgarh saw Monsoon rains within the normal limits. For Konkan region, rains remained on the excess side for Konkan in 2016 while Monsoon rains were normal in 2017.
Monsoon rains were on the excess side in the year 2016 for Marathwada while they were within the normal limits in the year 2017. Talking about Gujarat, the state saw almost excess rains in 2017, while rainfall was not as good for 2016.
Monsoon rains in Central India depend on the track of the systems forming in the Bay of Bengal. When these systems take a west-northwesterly or a westerly track, good rains are witnessed over Central India and vice versa.
Image Credit: Instagram (Historytv18)
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com