On the predicted lines, the state of Rajasthan received fairly widespread monsoon showers in the past 24 hours. As expected, the eastern and northern parts of the state had fairly intense rainfall at few places. State capital Jaipur received 82mm, Erinpura Jawai Dam 80mm and Ganganagar 71mm rainfall in the last 24 hours. Moderate showers were observed at Alwar, Ajmer, Kota, Bhilwara, Sikar and Churu. More heavy rains are likely in the next 24 hours. However, the heavy rainfall belt will shift to West Rajasthan.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan region. Another circulation is marked far to the east of the state over the Jharkhand region. An east-west axis joins the centre of these two systems, which is cutting across central parts of the state. These conditions are favourable for the continuation of monsoon activity over the state of Rajasthan, albeit, a bigger share for West Rajasthan in the next 24 hours.
The cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan is getting fueled by adequate moisture from the Arabian Sea. This situation is likely to persist for 48 hours, more strongly in the first 24 hours. Under the influence of circulation, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over border posts like Jaisalmer and Barmer. Heavy rains will extend and reach Phalodi, Bikaner and Jodhpur. Moderate showers are likely over Ajmer, Jaipur, Kota, Bundi, Alwar and Dausa.
The cyclonic circulation is drifting westward, largely over the Pakistan region tomorrow. Therefore, the weather activity will become less intense and shrink in spread, as well. In the meantime, the circulation over Jharkhand will keep moving westward and come closer to the state on 04th Aug. This feature will be clearly marked over Southwest Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Rajasthan on 04thAug and move to extreme West Rajasthan, the next day. Later, it became less marked and also moved away from the state. Weather conditions will improve briefly, between 07th & 08thAug. Another spell of heavy rains is likely to come up between the 09th and 12th of August.
Image Credit: India Today