Northeast India is one of the rainiest pockets of the country during the Southwest Monsoon season and almost 30% of the seasonal rainfall is contributed by this region. However, as of now, until June 10, Northeast India is rainfall deficient by 49%.
Southwest Monsoon has already covered most parts of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, some parts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam on the stipulated time. However, it has covered mainly the eastern half of the region whereas, the western half of Northeast India still waits for the arrival of Southwest Monsoon.
Normally, Monsoon covers the entire stretch of Northeast India during the first week of June. But, this year, despite making an on-time arrival, the pace of Southwest Monsoon slowed down.
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As per Skymet Weather, advancement of Southwest Monsoon over Northeast India takes place by two ways: Firstly, due to the Monsoon surge driving along the Bay of Bengal and secondly under the influence of any weather system developing in the Bay of Bengal.
This time, the second factor was responsible for the slowing down of Monsoon over the region. As per Skymet Weather, there was a depression in the Bay of Bengal which shifted northwards and presently lies as a well-marked low-pressure area over Tripura and adjoining regions.
The track of the system dictates the Monsoon regime over the region. This system is likely to shift further northeastwards and would bring the Monsoon current over most parts of Northeast India.
In the wake of this, almost the entire northeastern region is likely to receive moderate to heavy with very heavy rains for the next 48 hours. However, the mainly affected areas would be the eastern half of the region as against the western part of Northeast India. NMMT (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura) region may brace for heavy to extremely heavy rains until June 13.
Thereafter, as the system would fizzle out, the Monsoon current would weaken, and rains are likely to slow down but will continue over the region. In fact, these heavy spells may even help in improving the prevailing rainfall deficiency. However, these heavy rains may trigger incidences of mudslides and landslides as well.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com