Heavy to very heavy rains will continue for the state of Gujarat for 4 more days and relief thereafter. Intense rains are expected to lash South Gujarat and Saurashtra between 13thand 16THJuly. The ravaging wet spell is likely to abate during the entire next week. Weather conditions will start improving on 17thJuly and extend further to the next week, to the desire of farmers and common man as well.
Heavy downpour has deluged many parts of the state during last one week. Both the meteorological sub divisions of the state, namely Saurashtra & Kutch and Gujarat have recorded rainfall far in excess of the normal. Semi arid region of S&K has received 213mm of rainfall in first 12 days of July against its monthly normal of 195.6mm. Gujarat has already measured large excess of 239mm against monthly figure of 340mm, during the same period. Last year, both these sub divisions had remained deficit by over 40% in July.
Low pressure area over coastal Odisha has moved westward and is now marked over Interior parts of South Odisha and South Chhattisgarh. The convergence zone is leading far ahead of the center across Maharashtra. Peripherals of east-west shear zone and proximity of the confluence zone has influenced the weather conditions across South Coastal Gujarat. In the next 24hr, an off shoot cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over Gulf of Cambay and adjoining parts of South Gujarat and Saurashtra. In the subsequent 48hr, this circulation will shift over Saurashtra & Kutch and Northeast Arabian Sea. There is likelihood of a low pressure area coming up over the same region and stay nearly stagnant for these 2 days, 15th& 16thJuly. The next day, on 17thJuly, this weather system will move further westward across Sonmiani Bay and port cities : Karachi, Ormara, Pasni, Gwadar and Jiwani of Pakistan.
Today, heavy rains are likely over South Coastal Gujarat covering Vapi, Navsari, Valsad, Surat and Bharuch. Tomorrow, the inclement weather will extend further to cover coastal Saurashtra from Mahuva, Bhavnagar, Diu, Veraval, Somnath and Porbandar. On the subsequent 2 days, with the intensification of weather system to a well marked low or possibly depression in the Arabian Sea, coastline of Saurashtra and Kutch will be at risk of heavy to very heavy rains. Rest of Gujarat state will experience moderate intermittent showers. Relief is quite likely from 17thJuly onward and the lenient spell may extend in to next week.