Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have received widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours. Similar or heavier rainfall activity is likely for another 48 hours. The foothills of Bihar and the Poorvanchal region have observed heavy rainfall during this period. Chief amounts of rainfall include: Forbesganj– 310mm, Katihar– 172mm, Purnea-148mm, Supaul-115mm, Ghazipur- 90mm, and Gorakhpur-75mm. Moderate showers have lashed elsewhere, covering most pockets of this region.
The cyclonic circulation of the remnant low-pressure is now marked over Southwest Madhya Pradesh and the neighbourhood. It is likely to shift to Southwest Uttar Pradesh and North Madhya Pradesh. Further, it will drag along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With the movement of the circulation, the eastern side of the monsoon trough has shifted north of its normal position, at and above the friction level of 3,000 feet. The feature is well-marked and runs close to the foothills, therefore, enhancing the rainfall activity.
Both the sub-divisions, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh have a significant shortfall of seasonal rains, so far. The state of Bihar is deficit by 28% and East Uttar Pradesh is down by 17% rainfall. Both these pockets are likely to witness moderate to heavy rains, more intense today than tomorrow. The cyclonic circulation will become less marked later and therefore, decrease in the weather activity. Still, as the weakened circulation is going to meander over the eastern parts for the subsequent 3-4 days, light to moderate weather activity will continue over the region. The flip side of this intense weather lies in escalating the rising rivers in that area. The mountainous region of Nepal and the catchment areas will have very heavy rains. The excess water will flow down the rivers and streams, all along the foothills. The water bodies, as such, keep responding for some time, even when the heavy rainfall ceases. Significant improvement to commence recovery is likely over this area, not earlier than, mid-week next.
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