Central parts of the country are poised for long spell of heavy rains. Rains will travel from east to west and may cover the entire stretch extending from Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Peripherals of the rain belt will encroach parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan as well. Spread of rains will be large in the respective states and intensity varying from moderate to heavy.
A low pressure area, preceded by a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and coastal parts of Odisha on 14thJuly. Prior to that, a broad cyclonic circulation will form over the same area and remain in the process of organization for nearly 48 hours. There will be confluence of winds, generation of shear zone and sharp turning of winds increasing vorticity. Under the combined influence of these features, active monsoon conditions are likely over the central parts of the country in a staggered manner.
To start with, interiors of Odisha, southern half of Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh will fall prey to these heavy rains between 12th and 14thJuly. After formation of a low pressure area, an elongated east-west shear zone will form, roughly along 20°N between 16th and 17th July. Additionally, the confluence of winds between turning easterlies from BoB and westerlies from the Arabian Sea will form on either side of the shear zone.
Subsequently, there is likelihood of another cyclonic circulation coming up over North BoB stretching from the eastern coast of Myanmar to coastal parts of North Odisha on 18thJuly. This will consolidate and move inland over parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha. This feature will, by and large meander over this area for nearly three days. Active to vigorous monsoon activity is expected over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra between 12th and 20thJuly. Moderate rains are likely to reach some parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during last two days of this period.
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