The state of Uttrakhand observed mild weather activity during the last week of August and the first week of September. A seasonal surplus of 14% as on 24thAug 2023 got consumed largely and stood at a mere 2% on 07th September 2023. Almost 2 weeks, that too in the monsoon season, remained nearly silent. However, the weather activity has picked up in the last 3 days and is expected to continue till this weekend.
The remnant cyclonic circulation of the low-pressure area has weakened and lies over southwest Uttar Pradesh in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This resulted oscillation of the monsoon trough, the main driver of monsoon activity, for the state. Another, monsoon system, presently as cyclonic circulation is brewing over the Bay of Bengal. There is the likelihood of a mild western disturbance moving across the northern mountains between 14th & 16th September. A dry circulation is likely to come up over North Pakistan and adjoining North Punjab between the 13th and 18th of September.
Under the combined influence of these weather features, the monsoon trough will become active over the region. While the eastern end of the trough will run south of its normal position, the western end in an inclined position will run through the foothills of the state. Aided by the north-south trough of the western disturbance, the weather activity will enhance over most parts of the state, more effectively from 13th September.
Stormy weather conditions are likely over the lower and mid reaches of the state between the 13th and 17th September. Rain and thundershowers, with tall convective clouds, may trigger heavy weather, particularly during late afternoon, evening and night hours. Hazardous weather may also set off disruption in connectivity on account of cloud bursts, landslides, rockslides and lightning strikes. Exercise caution and adopt necessary measures.