The state of Gujarat had rained heavily in the month of July and the start of August. However, the last two weeks have remained withdrawn and minimal monsoon activity was observed and that too in patches. The surplus of 51% rainfall for Saurashtra & Kutch at the end of July was largely consumed and has dropped to just 19%, as of today. Even, mainland Gujarat which recorded little above normal rains has now slipped to below normal by about 9% rainfall. Heavy rains are forecast for the state, starting this weekend and continuing till mid-week next. However, this good news comes with a caution of likely deluge, resulting in localized flooding over South Coastal and Central Gujarat. Many parts of Saurashtra also will be at risk of incessant and inundating rains.
There is a low-pressure area over North Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal. This system will move westward, across West Bengal over the next 48 hours. The low-pressure area will reach central Madhya Pradesh on 24th Aug and the weather activity will commence the same day, over the periphery of the state. The intensity and spread will increase from 25th Aug onward and the state of mayhem may be witnessed over different parts of the state till 27th August.
Moderate to isolated heavy rains are likely on 24th Aug over extreme eastern peripherals of the state and South Coastal Gujarat. The spread and intensity will increase further, on the 25th and 26th of August. On these two days, the locations at risk will include Basankantha, Sabarkantha, Patan, Mehsana, Palanpur, Dahod, Panchmahal, Godhra, Chhota Udaipur, Mahisagar, Batod, Amreli, Mahuva, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Baroda and Anand. The next day, intense weather activity will vacate deep inland parts of Gujarat and affect mostly Saurashtra and Kutch, without any compromise with the fury and force. Around mid-week, the weather system will away to the Northeast Arabian Sea on the 28th and 29th of August. Only, the remnant effect of the system will be observed over the westernmost parts of Saurashtra & Kutch and that too with least anger and severity.
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