Heavy to very rains are likely over Bay Islands between 26th and 28thNov 2023. The region has earlier experienced frequent bouts of rain in association with the monsoon systems travelling in close proximity over the equatorial belt. No significant weather affected the region for the last 4 days or so but extremely heavy rains may lash the area, starting on the weekend and spilling over to the next week.
A strong monsoon system is expected to form shortly, over the South Andaman Sea and extreme southeast Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation followed by low pressure area is likely to come up on 25th/26th Nov. This will strengthen further, rapidly and keep moving northwestward. Prior to intensification, the weather system has to tendency to stay longer over the region to gather pace and energy.
Far eastern parts of the Bay of Bengal have a long chain of north-south oriented islands. In addition to the large number of small islands with no inhabitants, there are fair size of islands between 8°N and 13°N nearly stretched along 92°E to 93°E. Inclement weather conditions are likely for Nancowry, Car Nicobar, Hut Bay, Port Blair, Long Island and Maya Bandar between the 26th and 28th of November. The southern islands like Car Nicobar will be more vulnerable to hazardous weather. Peak weather activity is likely between 27th and 28th Nov.
Sea conditions will be very rough for commercial activity and sailors. Tall cloud clusters will trouble the aviators, as well. Squally winds, torrential rains, bumpy atmosphere and swelled waves will remain the hallmark for nearly 3 days, between 26th and 28th Nov. Advise exercise caution for sea-born platforms, rigs, oceanographers, sailors and aviators.