Cyclonic circulation over northwest and central Bay of Bengal (BoB) has consolidated in the past 24hours. A low pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24hours. The monsoon low will move inland over states of Odisha and Jharkhand in the subsequent 24 hours. Active monsoon conditions will prevail over eastern parts and adjacent central parts of the country.
Break monsoon conditions prevailed for the last about 10days. Rainfall activity got limited to the hilly region of North India and along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast India. Western, central and southern parts of the country experienced weak monsoon conditions during 1st fortnight of August. Seasonal rainfall lowered from ‘above normal’ to ‘below normal’ and is currently 94% of the long period average. Month of August has a shortfall of 38% rainfall. Core monsoon zone of central India including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh are drifting once again towards below normal. Presently, the shortfall is of the order of 15%-17% of LPA.
Peripherals of cyclonic circulation and the outer bands have already reached the coastline of Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Intense rainfall activity will largely be confined to the sea today and moderate showers are likely over the coastline and interiors of these two states. As the monsoon system crosses coast, the spread and intensity of rainfall will increase.
Low pressure area will move slowly after crossing the coast. It is likely to meander over parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and East Madhya Pradesh. Broad cyclonic circulation will persist over these parts for the next 3-4 days. Heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh. Convective cluster of rain bearing clouds will also extend to parts of Vidarbha and Telangana. Nagpur, Chandrapur, Brahmapuri, Gondia, Washim and Yeotmal can expect moderate thundershowers. Some pockets of Telangana including Adilabad, Nizamabad, Ramagundam and the capital city Hyderabad will also witness moderate to intense showers between 17th and 19thAugust. Light rain and patchy showers will continue over eastern parts of Vidarbha till middle of next week.