Heavy rainfall is likely to lash the northeast region during this week. Inclement weather conditions will spill over to the next week, as well. The northern half of the region comprising Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland will be more vulnerable to severe weather activity. Persistent heavy weather over the region may even impact the connectivity and lead to over swelling of water bodies.
By monsoon standards, the northeastern region has fallen short of the seasonal rains for quite some time. In particular, the north-south oriented sub-division of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (NMMT) is having a deficit of 26% rainfall. Even, the mountainous state of Arunachal is below normal by about 17% rainfall. Going by records, the northeastern states are the second rainiest after the Western Ghats during the southwest monsoon. With the likely wet spell, the deficit margins may improve, notably.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over Jharkhand and adjoining parts, extending up to middle levels. Courtesy, of the location of the circulation, the upper winds in the lower levels have turned southerly and southwesterly over Northeast India. This pattern is mighty favourable for heavy downpours over the region, for a fairly long. First, this circulation is moving over parts of Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh and extreme northeast Madhya Pradesh and later getting merged with the seasonal monsoon trough. After 48 hours, the eastern end of the seasonal trough is shifting northward, closer to the hills. Over the northeast region also, the trough will run along the Assam Valley and Arunachal Pradesh. Once again, this pattern favours heavy rains over the northeast region. In the second scenario, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh become the soft targets for monsoon fury.
Heavy rain and thundershowers are likely over the northeastern parts over the next week. Meghalaya and lower Assam become more vulnerable to strong thunderstorm activity. Most of the weather activity happens in the late evening and night hours. Weather conditions generally become better in the forenoon and afternoon hours. The normal conditions resume on the formation of the monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal. The low pressure or even a cyclonic circulation over the ‘Head Bay’ drags the monsoon trough to its normal position, thereby, improving the weather conditions over the region.
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