In contrast to the month of June, Mumbai has recorded excess rainfall in July. The city had recorded about 30% less rainfall in June. However, month of July has already surpassed its monthly quota, in the first fortnight of the month. The base observatory at Santacruz has recorded over 100mm rainfall in 24 hours on 4 occasions, so far and the highest of 268mm was recorded on 08thJuly 2024. The city has amassed a total of 857.7mm rainfall against its monthly normal of 840.7mm. Monsoon bursts are likely during the second fortnight as well and the seasonal rainfall will exceed the normal figure, half way through the season.
Presently, there is a cyclonic circulation over parts of Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. This has strengthened the westerly stream along the Konkan Coast. Moderate and intermittent showers are expected today and the pace and frequency will increase during night and early morning. The cyclonic circulation will move westward to come closer over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Also, an east-west shear zone prevails nearly along 20°C North, passing through the Konkan coastline. Combined influence of these two features will accentuate the monsoon activity tomorrow.
Intensity and spread of rain and thundershowers is likely to increase further by tomorrow. Monsoon showers will become heavier and frequent, as well. Heavy bursts for longer durations are quite likely tomorrow. The high tide timings will be around 7.30 am and 6.30 pm with the wave height of about 10-12 feet. As the cyclonic circulation weakens a bit, the intensity of rains will reduce for the subsequent two days on 17th and 18thJuly. However, another monsoon system is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal on 17th and 18thJuly. After consolidation, the well marked system will move over North Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand on 19th -20thJuly. Monsoon westerly stream from the Arabian Sea will pick up again. Another round of moderate to heavy showers is likely over Mumbai and suburbs between 20th and 22ndJuly.