Few incidents of cloudburst were witnessed over Western Himalayas in the month of July leading to widespread destruction and loss of life. Cloudburst occurred over Kullu region as well as over Jammu and Kashmir near Amarnath cave. Most of the Western Himalayan States are receiving good rain in the month of July accept Ladakh which is still rain deficient.
Axis of monsoon trough is expected to move over foothills of Himalayas by July 18 or 19. Humid winds from Arabian Sea as well as from Bay of Bengal will feed the moisture over hilly states.
A Western Disturbance is over Northern parts of Pakistan and adjoining area as a cyclonic circulation. In the wake of these weather parameters, we expect moderate to heavy rain and thundershower activities to occur over Jammu Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand between July 18 and 21st.
There are chances of landslide, mudslide and flash floods. Isolated incidents of cloud burst can't be ruled out. Therefore, all the necessary precautions must be in place for these states. Heavy rainfall activities can have adverse impact on ongoing Char Dham Yatra. Skymet will keep updating about the latest situation of rainfall.