Has the Monsoon lost its mojo?

Monsoon in north India has been lackluster, not bringing good amounts of rain to the region so far. And the coming months do not spell any magic either for those eagerly awaiting some good rain. As of today many states including Delhi, Punjab and Haryana are in deficit for July rainfall with the exception of Uttarakhand where rainfall has been 16% in excess.

Here is data that shows rainfall deficit in northern states as on date.

Delhi: -31%

Haryana: -31%

Punjab: -31%

Uttar Pradesh: -29%

Himachal: -18%

However, a strong surge is expected from 20^th July which may last 4-5 days but will weaken thereafter. This sudden surge does not look like it’ll fill the rainfall deficit north India is staring at in the month of July. And even thereafter, we at Skymet have forecast that August and September too do not look very exciting in terms of rain.

Northeast India has witnessed very little rain since June as well. In fact six states that include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Tripura, Mizoram and Nagaland have witnessed deficit rain so far.

Rainfall figures in the above states till the 18^thof July are as follows

Assam: -42%,

Arunachal Pradesh: -38%

Manipur: -50%

Tripura: -50%

Mizoram: -50%

Nagaland: -50%

This situation doesn't seem to be improving in the coming months either. The system that used to move northerly and affect east and northeastern parts of the country is now moving across central India through Orissa and Chhattisgarh which is why northeast India is getting very little rain.

Meanwhile, rain in peninsular India has been normal with some exceptions like Tamil Nadu and Puduchcheri where rain has shown a deficit till now.Weather analysts are predicting a slowdown in rainfall activity here due to the weakening of South West Monsoon. However, it is expected to pick up from mid August.

On the other hand, entire central India has been receiving good rain and has become the wettest region of the country. Several places here including Madhya Pradesh have already recorded rainfall in excess. This trend is expected to prevail for the coming months as well.