The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is currently experiencing large rain deficiency. As on February 12, West Madhya Pradesh is deficient by 74% and East Madhya Pradesh by 51%. In contrast, Chhattisgarh is presently rain surplus by 12%.
Due to the integration of southwesterly humid winds from the Arabian Sea with southeasterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, a confluence zone is likely to form over western parts of Madhya Pradesh from February 13. This will also result in the commencement of scattered rains over western parts of the state.
On February 14, we expect the spread and intensity of rain to increase. The intensity will largely be confined over northern districts.
By February 15, the confluence zone will shift to eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh. Thus, along with East Madhya Pradesh, rains will also commence over many parts of Chhattisgarh. Weather will then become dry over western parts of Madhya Pradesh.
During this period, isolated pockets of North Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh may also receive hailstorm activity.
Between February 16 and 17, scattered rains will continue over parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, from February 17, weather will start clearing up from parts of Madhya Pradesh and shift over to Chhattisgarh and East MP.
In fact, crop damage may also be chance in some parts due to continuous rains during the coming two to three days.
By the end of this rainy episode, we expect marginal improvement in rain deficiency in Madhya Pradesh, while Chhattisgarh would observe surplus.
Rain and thundershower with few moderate to heavy spells and isolated hail storm would occur over Agar Malwa, Alirajpur, Anuppur, Ashoknagar, Balaghat, Barwani, Betul, Bhind, Bhopal, Burhanpur, Chhatarpur, Chhindwara, Damoh, Datia, Dewas, Dhar, Dindori, Guna, Gwalior, Harda, Hoshangabad, Indore, Jabalpur, Jhabua, Katni, Khandwa (East Nimar), Khargone (West Nimar), Mandla, Mandsaur, Morena, Narsimhapur, Neemuch, Panna, Raisen, Rajgarh, Ratlam, Rewa, Sagar, Satna, Sehore, Seoni, Shahdol, Shajapur, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Sidhi, Singrauli, Tikamgarh, Ujjain, Umaria, and Vidisha districts of Madhya Pradesh from February 13 to 16.
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