State of Gujarat has experienced incessant rains in July, the core monsoon month for the country. Earlier in June,the opening month of monsoon, the state was deficit by 53%. Courtesy heavy rains in July, Gujarat has exceeded normal by 23% and Saurashtra & Kutch submerged with large excess of 73%, between 01stJune and 11THJuly. In the first 11days of July, Gujarat has registered 264mm of rainfall against the normal of 115.5mm, about 130% in excess. Semi arid region of Saurashtra and Kutch has measured 223.5mm against 61mm during this period. And, everything is not yet over and done : deluge wait in the wings with drowning rains expected over this week.
Low pressure area is marked over Coastal Odisha and neighborhood. Well marked cyclonic circulation of this system is extending deep up to interior parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh. An east-west oriented convergence zone is further ahead of this feature up to Madhya Pradesh. Speed convergence of westerly winds nearly reaching north-south oriented sub division of Gujarat, from Banaskantha, Deesa, Mehsana, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Vadodara to Bharuch, Surat, Navsari, Valsad and Vapi. Heavy rains are expected all along this axis today.
Low pressure will move westward over North Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh tomorrow. It will move further over Saurashtra an South Gujarat a day later on 14thJuly, It may become well marked low or even a depression. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely over South & Central Gujarat and Saurashtra on these 2 days. Valsad, Surat, Mahuva, Bhavnagar, Diu, Veraval, Somnath, Porbandar, Okha and Dwarka run the risk of flooding rains on these 2 days. Interiors of Saurashtra like Amreli, Junagarh and Keshod also are vulnerable to torrential rains.
On 15th July, the monsoon system will park itself on the outskirts of coastline of Saurashtra and Kutch over Northeast Arabian Sea. It will still carry the potential of localized downpour over Naliya, Dwarka, Okha and Porbandar. Incessant weather activity over Gujarat state will ease out on 16thJuly. Scattered light to moderate showers may continue over the state for the next 3-4 days.
