Skymet Meteorology Division in India had earlier stated that from being the rainiest state last year Gujarat could be the driest one this El Nino year. Present scenario and the facts stated in this article seem to substantiate this statement.
Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat by 15th June. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. But this year a poor scenario prevailed as Monsoon rain over the state had been delayed beyond a limit of repair.
The western arm of the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), passing through Veraval and Surat, remained stagnant from 15th of June to the 15th of July.
In 2013, coastal regions of Kutch and Saurashtra received 64% excess rainfall while rest of Gujarat recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. But this year, Southwest Monsoon neither had a good beginning nor a decent progress in most parts of the country including Gujarat.
As have been reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a powerful El Nino spells trouble for India, which mostly faces below normal rain and occasionally even drought. But Gujarat seems to be bearing the maximum brunt of it.
Cumulative Rain Deficit exceeds 60%
Till 8th of July, cumulative rain deficiency in the sub-division of Saurashtra & Kutch remained 83% and Gujarat as a whole 92%. The state showed some improvement by the 13th as deficiency reduced to 75% over Saurashtra & Kutch, and 91% in the entire state.
In the last 3 days, Veraval received 158 mm of rain, Surat 118 mm, Rajkot 98 mm and Ahmedabad 58 mm of rain. Good showers brought down the rain deficiency significantly and as of 18th of July, the state stands rain deficient by 77%. Saurashtra & Kutch also showed improvement but still remains scanty at 62%.
picture courtesy- Channi Anand
