Northwest India saw poor Monsoon days in the initial phase. But as of July 5, Monsoon is at 37 per cent surplus as rains picked up thereafter. Moreover, all the subdivisions are surplus including Punjab at 20 percent, Haryana at 23 percent, and West Uttar Pradesh at 25 percent,
Now also, we expect some good weather activities wherein moderate to heavy rains are expected in the next four to five days, particularly around the weekend. Thus, these rains will furthermore increase the rainfall surplus of the region.
The reason for these rains can be attributed to the Monsoon trough, which is passing through the Northwest India region as a Cyclonic Circulation is over North and adjoining Central Pakistan, another circulation is over central Uttar Pradesh, and the third is over the Bay of Bengal. The line joining these three systems is the Monsoon trough passing through Delhi, Punjab, and West Uttar Pradesh.
A Western Disturbance will be coming on July 8 evening/night, further strengthening the Monsoon trough's bond with the circulations and increasing rains. Thus, on July 7, 8 and 9 moderate spells are expected over Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh further becoming heavy on July 9, 10 and 11.