Most of these Monsoon systems are seen developing in the Bay of Bengal. The movement of these systems take place along with the Monsoon trough whose average position is from Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh to Chhattisgarh, Bihar, West Bengal and the Bay of Bengal.
Presently, a depression which was over Madhya Pradesh and its adjoining areas has weakened into a low pressure area. The system resulted in good rains over many parts of Madhya Pradesh. So much so that three-digit rainfall was also observed over the region.
Now, the wind field and cloud pattern in the Bay of Bengal suggest the occurrence of a cyclogenesis in the Bay off the Arakan coast which is making conditions favourable for the formation of another Monsoon system.
However, the system may not undergo severe intensification due to the presence of a Category 5 Super Typhoon in the neighbouring areas. The presence of the typhoon will prevent the intensification as the Bay of Bengal current will feed moisture to the Typhoon as well.
During the next two to three days, the present system in Madhya Pradesh may weaken into a cyclonic circulation. This cyclogenesis may also develop into a cyclonic circulation.
Furthermore, the system will merge in with the previous system. Thus, rainfall activity will continue over Central India including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh along with Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal in East India. More rains are likely over these areas during the next 2 to 3 days.
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