Updated on December 04, 2015: After sustaining strength for quite some time, the cyclonic circulation in Southwest Bay of Bengal off the South Tamil Nadu coast has intensified into a low pressure area.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system is expected to persist for at least next 24 hours but it is highly unlikely to strengthen further.
The system will be gradually shifting from east to west but at a very slow place.
In wake of this, South Coastal Tamil Nadu will receive moderate to heavy showers. Also under its influence, Kerala will record light to moderate showers, while Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rest of Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka will witness light showers.
Updated on November 26, 2015: Back to back spells of heavy rain during the month of November have kept the Northeast Monsoon active over most parts of Tamil Nadu. However, in the last 48 hours rainfall activity in the region has taken a backseat, giving huge relief to the people of the region.
Presently, a cyclonic circulation is brewing in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining the Andaman Sea and is showing further signs of intensification. This system is likely to induce a low-pressure area during the next 48 hours or so.
The system may intensify even further as another cyclonic circulation is brewing over the same area and is likely to merge with the first system. This will result in heavy to very heavy rain over various parts of Tamil Nadu starting November 28.
This system will stay put in the south-west Bay of Bengal for a longer duration. Furthermore, the low-pressure area may also intensify into a depression and deep depression afterwards. Also, there is a very slight possibility of the formation of a feeble cyclonic storm. The system is likely to shift up and cause good showers over Andhra Pradesh. While strengthening, the system may move a little away from the East Coast.
This season, no cyclonic storm has formed in the Bay of Bengal. Usually, between the months of October and December, two to three cyclones occur in the Bay every year. During the last 15 years, every year at least one cyclonic storm has formed in the Bay of Bengal. With November ending and taking the last 15 years into consideration, a cyclonic storm should occur in the month of December at least.
Updated on November 17, 2015: The well-marked low in the Bay of Bengal has pounded rains over many parts of Tamil Nadu. Owing to this system, the state capital, Chennai has recorded extremely heavy rainfall in the past few days. However, now rains over Chennai and other areas of Tamil Nadu has reduced as the system now lies over North Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh.
This system has system has now started giving heavy to very heavy rains over South and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. In a span of 24 hours, Nellore has recorded a whopping 123 mm of rain. Other areas have also recorded heavy rainfall.
Now, the system is likely to weaken into a low pressure area as conditions for further intensification are not favourable. But, it will continue to give heavy to very heavy rains over parts of Andhra Pradesh. Thereafter, the system will further weaken reducing rain over South India.
Updated on November 16, 2015: The well-marked low-pressure area over the south-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka has moved in west-northwest direction and at present it is lying near Tamil Nadu coast. It is most likely to intensify into a depression and likely to enter Tamil Nadu anytime today.
The weather system has given extremely heavy rain over north Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh. We expect that intense rainfall will continue over north Tamil Nadu, adjoining South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema, coastal AP in another 24 hours. Telangana which was observing dry weather till now will receive good showers till morning of 17 November. Thereafter, this weather system is expected to weaken and move in a westerly direction and good rainfall will continue over Rayalaseema, and interior Karnataka. Due to northwards movement, intensity of rain over south Tamil Nadu will decrease significantly.
Updated on November 15, 2015: The well-marked low-pressure area over south-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka is expected to intensify into a depression by today evening. The system is likely to move in a north-westerly direction and will reach South Tamil Nadu coast by November 16.
However, heavy rain will continue over south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu including Ramanathapuram, Nagapttinam, Puducherry, Cuddalore, Kanchipuram, and Chennai. Gradually, Madurai, Dundigal and other interior districts will also receive heavy to very heavy rain. This system may intensify even further if the conditions are favourable.
Updated at 02:50 PM, Nov 14, 2015: The low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal has undergone further intensification. Now the system has become a well-marked low. During the next 24 to 48 hours, the weather system may intensify even further.
Due to this, rainfall activity has picked up in Chennai and the intensity of rain is expected to increase even further. Heavy rains may lead to flood-like conditions in many parts of coastal Tamil Nadu.
Updated on November 14, 2015: The upper air cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea has induced a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal. The system will move along the periphery of Sri Lanka giving heavy rain over the region. This low-pressure area will move in a north-westerly direction and gradually intensify into a well-marked low in the next 24 hours or so. The system may further intensify into a depression.
November 15 night onwards, rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu will increase. By November 16, fairly widespread heavy to very heavy rain is expected over Chennai and other coastal districts of Tamil Nadu including Kanchipuram, and Nagapattinam. Good rains will also occur over Puducherry. By November 17, most parts of Tamil Nadu including South Interior Karnataka and Kerala will receive light to moderate rain. A few areas will also receive heavy falls.
This weather system is expected to cross the Arabian Sea by November 20. During that period, rainfall will reduce over Tamil Nadu but Kerala and western parts of Tamil Nadu will continue to receive light rain.
Updated on November 13, 2015: The cyclonic circulation, which is over South Andaman Sea will induce a low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours, i.e. by November 14 or 15.
This low-pressure area will gradually start moving in a north-west direction and thereafter may intensify into a well-marked low-pressure area. Chances of the system turning into a depression are high if conditions remain as they are.
Owing to this system, rainfall activity will increase over parts of Coastal Tamil Nadu from November 16 and continue with same intensity till November 20.
On November 17, Karnataka will also receive rain including Bangalore where the scheduled test match between India and South Africa may be adversely affected.
Updated on November 12, 2015: A deep depression crossed the Tamil Nadu coast on November 9 and resulted in heavy to very heavy rains over many areas of Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. Good rains also occurred over Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and a few areas of Karnataka.
This system originated as a cyclonic circulation over the south-east Bay of Bengal and gradually intensified into a deep depression moving in a westward direction. Another cyclonic circulation is forming almost over the same area. However, it is a little south of the previous system.
The present system is likely to intensify into a low-pressure area and is expected to concentrate into a depression as well. The system will result in good rains over many parts of Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from November 16.
By November 17, the intensity of rain will increase. After that, the rain belt will also cover areas of South Interior Karnataka, and Rayalaseema. Bangalore, for instance, will receive good rains owing to this system. The city has already received three times the monthly average rainfall.
The system may or may not intensify into a deep depression. Skymet will keep you updated about the movement and the impact of the system.
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