Depression in Bay heads to Bangladesh, cyclone threat ruled out
Retaining its strength, the depression in west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal is now moving into east-northeast direction. The system is now heading close to Bangladesh coast.
It may intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours, however, weathermen have ruled out any possibility of this system turning into a cyclone.
The depression is presently centered at 18.5°N and 87.5°E, around 470 km south-southwest of Kolkata, 210 km southeast of Paradip and 480 km southsouthwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The system will now move in northeast direction and is likely to cross the Bangladesh coast by the evening of November 6.
During this process, it is likely to lash northeastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura with moderate to heavy rains along with squally winds.
Gangetic West Bengal including Kolkata is also likely to continue with moderate to heavy showers for the next 24 hours.
The system has already given good rainfall over several parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha during the last 24 to 48 hours.
Depression in Bay may not intensify into cyclone
The depression over west-central Bay of Bengal has shifted further closer to the Indian coast.
The system is presently centered at 15.5°N and 85.0°E, about 300 km southsoutheast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 550 km southsouthwest of Paradip (Odisha) and 900 km southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
Moving at a speed of 18 kmph, depression is tracking northwards and will continue to move in same direction for the next few hours. Thereafter, it is likely to re-curve and travel in northeast direction towards Bangladesh in span of 48 hours.
It is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours. However, we do not expect it to concentrate into a cyclonic storm due to unfavourable vertical wind shear.
According to Skymet Weather, at present, the depression is in favourable sea conditions of warm sea surface temperatures as well as low vertical wind shear of 5-10 knots and strong divergent outflow.
But, just to the north and west of the system, vertical wind shear is expected to increase to 25-30 knots, which will hinder its further development. As of now, it will strengthen into a deep depression but chances of further intensification are very less.
Meanwhile, the system will continue to pound moderate to heavy showers over coastal parts of Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal including Kolkata. Coastal Andhra Pradesh will also witness some good showers.
Sea conditions will also continue to be rough and fishermen are not advised to get into the water for at least next 48 hours.
The well-marked low pressure area in Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression and is lying in central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The system is presently centered at 13N and 87E, about 530 km southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 730 km south-southwest of Paradip (Odisha).
According to Skymet Weather, the system is moving at a speed of 20 kmph and likely to continue track in northwest direction towards Andhra coast for the next 24 hours to 36 hours. Thereafter it may recurve towards northeastwards.
The depression is likely to further gain more strength during this period and turn into a deep depression by Friday. Cloud configuration and weather conditions are indicating, that system has full potential to concentrate into a cyclonic storm.
If this happens, it will be named as Cyclone ‘Nada’. This will be the second cyclone of the season to develop in Bay of Bengal after the Cyclone Kyant that had developed last week.
However, weathermen ruled out the possibility of this system turning into a severe cyclone as the duration sea travel will be less.
Weathermen predict that the possible cyclone is likely to move towards Gangetic West Bengal or Bangladesh by November 6 or 7.
The system has already started giving light to moderate rains over coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal including Kolkata.
As the system tracks closer to the East Coast, it is likely to give moderate to heavy rains over coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh on November 4. While, intensity will be light to moderate over Gangetic West Bengal.
Rains activity and spread will increase gradually over Coastal Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal by November 5 and both the region could see some heavy to very heavy showers till November 6. Squally winds with the speed of 40 kmph to 50 kmph are also expected along the East Coast and sea conditions will be rough.
However, rains will reduce over Andhra Pradesh from November 5 onwards as the system will move away in north direction.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
