A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB), around this weekend. Unlike the previous two systems, which activated the monsoon rains over the eastern and northern parts, the likely system will take the weather activity to the central parts. Good rains are likely to span across, a large swathe of central states, right from the east coast to the western shore. The weather activity may last for about 6-7 days, during the last week of this month.
A broad east-west trough is likely over central BoB, as early as on 20th September. This may turn into a cyclonic circulation over the same area, the next day. The circulation will become more organized and also come closer to the coast on 22nd September. There lies a chance for a low-pressure area forming which will move inland the next day, on 23rd September. The system will nearly head westward, traversing a large stretch from Odisha Coast to Gujarat and Konkan.
The weather activity will start as early as 21st September. The scale and extent will increase on 22nd and 23rd of September. The activity will gain momentum and increase spread on the 24th and 25th of September. The intensity and coverage will further grow, before the weekend, on the 26th and 27th of September.
Since the model accuracy degrades after a lead time of 4-5 days, the prediction may have to be reviewed. If all goes well, the weather activity will cover the states of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat. The peripheral effect may also reach parts of Karnataka in the south and out of East Rajasthan in the west. The southwest monsoon which normally withdraws from a large portion of Gujarat, East Rajasthan and parts of West and North Madhya Pradesh by 30th September, may be put on hold and retreat may roll over to October.
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