At present, a cyclonic circulation is over Comorin and adjoining South Tamil Nadu. Even though this system is feeble, rainfall activity will increase over the southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Scattered light to moderate rain is likely over Kerala and South Tamil Nadu.
Usually, Northeast Monsoon rains begin by about October 20. The rainfall significantly increases over Peninsular India during this period with a difference of about five to six days. However, this time the commencement of the Northeast Monsoon has been delayed.
Since the beginning of October, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have been receiving good rains, which have resulted in positive rainfall figures. Initially during the first ten days of October, both the states received good showers. As a result, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are currently observing a rainfall surplus of 2 percent and 36 percent, respectively. After October 10, the rainfall intensity decreased for a few days, and the region observed subdued rainfall activity.
However, a fresh spell of rain is in the offing for the region. Starting today, good showers will lash the aforementioned region. These rains will continue for two to three days. Thereafter, the intensity of rain will decrease resulting in subdued rainfall activity. As a result, the rainfall figures could drop and the region could observe some deficiency before the commencement of the Northeast Monsoon.
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