A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over the North Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the next about 24 hours. The circulation will get organized in the subsequent 48 hours but remain confined to the sea, off Odisha and West Bengal coast. Weather activity will influence the eastern and central parts of the country between 05th and 10th of October. The activity will not be very severe in nature but still have a decent spread over these parts.
The likely circulation over BoB may not percolate to surface as low pressure area but will keep the monsoon activity live, over states of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh. As the monsoon will withdraw from more parts of North India and central parts during next 7 days, this monsoon system will not travel deep inland. The weather system will meander over these parts and finally recurve northeastward to affect Bangladesh and Northeast India.
Scattered rainfall activity is likely between the 04th and 07th of October over Gangetic West Bengal, North Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. This will spill over to reach Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, and North Telangana between 08th and 10th October. After this spell, the monsoon withdrawal is likely from these parts in the subsequent 3-4 days. Generally, the monsoon retreats from most parts of the country by 15th October and makes way for the northeast monsoon over the South Peninsula.