Close on the heels of low pressure over Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh, another cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This monsoon circulation system is expected to take 2-3 days to organize and consolidate over the northwest BoB and adjoining coastline of West Bengal and Odisha. Once, it becomes strong enough as closed and compact cyclonic circulation, it may turn into a low-pressure area, as well but not before 21st July 2023. It is expected to follow the trail left behind by the existing system and move across the central parts of the country.
The current low-pressure area associated with cyclonic circulation extending till medium levels will move slowly. This will keep the monsoon in active to vigorous state covering parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and interiors of Maharashtra, Konkan and Gujarat over the next 3 days. The baton will then be handed over to the fresh system and another round of weather activity will commence from 21st July onwards. However, it may spare extreme weather activity over Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and rather head for Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The prolonged wet spell may still not provide the desired compensation to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, the states staring at drought-like conditions in some pockets. Even, the grief-stricken sub-divisions of Karnataka, Kerala, Rayalaseema and the southern half of Telangana may not find adequate solace during this week. Scattered consolation showers are likely next week over these areas, albeit not sufficient enough to marginalize the large deficiencies accrued over the last few weeks.
Southwest monsoon rainfall had ended with a shortfall of 10% in June. However, the deficit was made good in the 1st week of July, itself. Subsequently, active monsoon conditions associated with low pressure from BoB led to an overall surplus of 2% seasonal rainfall during 2nd week of July. This surplus has since been consumed on account of poorer monsoon activity over the eastern and southern parts of the country. Monsoon rainfall has reached a break-even point for the last 3 days but may incur a slight shortfall of 1% in the subsequent 48 hours.