Currently, there are two weather systems over the South Peninsula and its vicinity. The remnant of Tamil Nadu depression over interiors of Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and well marked cyclonic circulation, off Goa-Karnataka coast in the Arabian Sea. The Arabian Sea system will move further away westward and the remnant of depression likely to get filled up over the same area in the next 2-3 days. There is a fresh weather system likely to emerge over Bay of Bengal, around this weekend.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to appear over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal on 19th/20th October. Looks like, this will enter the region from the Myanmar-Thailand side as a spillover of cyclonic circulation moving across the Gulf of Martaban and the Arakan Coast. The circulation is likely to get organized further and also move to the central parts of the Bay of Bengal on the 21st and 22nd of October. Further prognostication of this system may not be authentic at this stage. Weather models reliability is lowered after 4-5 days and therefore, the weather system will be observed for the next 48 hours.
As a climatological norm, any of these low-pressure areas over the Indian Seas have the potential to strengthen into tropical storms. Availability of heat potential and sufficient sea travel remain the mandatory conditions. The entire coastline from Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh and Myanmar is vulnerable to the storm strike. Environmental conditions decide the intensity and the steering current, and its likely track. The longer the sea travel, the better are chances for intensification.+
