Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB ), a low pressure area has formed over the region. It is manifested as cluster of convective clouds in the satellite imagery and vindicated as broad cyclonic circulation up to higher levels of the atmosphere. Sea conditions are aligned and supportive of further intensification to a depression or possibly deep depression by late evening or midnight tomorrow.
During the process of intensification, the weather system will be steered west-northwest across South-Central BoB and further on to Southwest BoB by late night on 19th Nov or 20th morning. Weather activity in association with the system will mostly remain confined over the Sea till 19th Nov, except squally winds along Tamil Nadu coast.
Coastline of Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh will be impacted on 20th morning and persisting till 22nd Nov, albeit on reducing note. Weather activity will extend inland covering interior parts of Tamil Nadu, parts of Rayalaseema, lower parts of South Interior Karnataka and state of Kerala between 22nd and 24th Nov.
The depression, as such, will not gain much latitude and weather activity will remain confined to south of 15 deg North. In the early stages itself, proximity of landmass of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu may weaken the system a bit, due to interaction and friction. Still, heavy rains are expected over few places on 20th and 21st Nov and mostly moderate on other days.
Yet another weather system is likely to emerge over North Andaman Sea around 22nd -23rd Nov. It will be little too early to comment on its intensity and track, as of now. Preliminary indications suggest that the weather system will approach from Gulf of Thailand and Arakan Coast to enter BoB. Unlike its predecessor, it may cut short the sea travel and head for Myanmar and Bangladesh.