A cyclonic circulation has formed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining coastal parts of Odisha. It is likely to consolidate over the next 48 hours and become more organized. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the same region on 21/22nd July. This feature may also become a well-marked low pressure and move inland on 24th July.
The remnant of the previous system will leave an extended east-west trough from Madhya Maharashtra to Odisha. Turning of winds in association with this fresh cyclonic circulation over coastal parts of Odisha, coupled with trough will activate the convergence zone. This will lead to scattered rain and thundershower activity over Odisha and Chhattisgarh between 19th and 21st July, well before the formation of the low-pressure area.
The low pressure will strengthen and is expected to breach the coastline on 24th July. During the interim period from 21st to 23rd July, the intensity and spread of weather activity will increase to cover parts of South Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Gangetic West Bengal will have light weather activity and the adjacent states of Bihar and Jharkhand may get left out, for any significant weather.
Well-marked low pressure is likely to move more westward initially and track west-northwest later. The southwest sector of these monsoon systems has more severe weather and is least in the northeast quadrant. Accordingly, South Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will have widespread vigorous monsoon activity on 24th and 25th July. Outer peripherals of the system may stretch to reach Vidarbha and parts of Karnataka, as well. In the subsequent 2 days, the focus will shift from Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra to Madhya Pradesh .
Southern sub-divisions of North and South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema will, at last, get some decent showers, at least for 48 hours. Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, once again will be left out with just scanty rains. This weather system may ultimately have the tendency to take the monsoon trough closer to the foothills during the closing days of July.