A cyclonic circulation has persisted over West Central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), for the last 48 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24 hours. The fresh monsoon system is expected to stay close to the coastline of North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha. The weather system will also spend some time over the sea getting organized and becoming well-marked, possibly a depression in the subsequent 48 hours.
There is already a pair of cyclonic circulations, one over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining parts of Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Another one, a little less marked lies over parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Both these systems have kept the monsoon going, for respective parts. The former system may be subsumed by the low pressure coming up in BoB and the latter one merge with the monsoon trough. Accordingly, the fresh system will control the pace and spread of monsoon in the next week.
Weather activity in association with the well-marked low looks to remain confined up to Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. There are fewer chances for the monsoon bursts to reach deep into Maharashtra, West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Instead, the weather system, after the initial weather raid over the mentioned parts, may turn towards the northeast. In such cases, good monsoon showers are expected over rain-starved pockets of Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha. These rains may not be heavy but still adequate to compensate for the acute shortage observed so far.
Formation and subsequent movement of the system will keep the West Coast active, more so, for Karnataka and Konkan. Also, monsoon activity will pick up over northeast India towards fag end of July and the opening days of August. The eastern end of the monsoon trough will be more active as compared to the other sister end. The western end will have the tendency to remain north of its normal position. Therefore, the foothills of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand will witness increased weather activity, during this period.