A low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) very soon to rev up the dormant northeast monsoon over South Peninsula. A monsoon low is expected over the Southwest BoB around 09th Nov and stay put nearly stationary for the next 24hr. Weather activity over BoB will be a prelude to active monsoon conditions over South Peninsula between the 11th and 14th November.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over Southeast BoB and Andaman Sea. This system will move westward to travel up to Southwest BoB in the next 2-3 days. Gathering pace while over the sea, the circulation will turn in to a low pressure area over Southwest BoB, off the coastline of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu.
The weather system will travel mostly in the equatorial belt, in the southern latitudes. However, a well marked north-south trough will accompany the system, more like an easterly wave, at the time of crossing coastline.
Intense weather activity with large spread is expected over coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on 11th and 12th Nov. Weather belt will travel eastward to cover parts of Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala over the next 2 days. Low pressure is likely to cross over to Arabian Sea, off Kerala coast on 14th Nov. Another wave of rain and clouds may follow this system with a short break of 2-3 days.