Active monsoon conditions are prevailing over many parts of the country. Remnants of the low pressure area over Gujarat has moved to Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Pakistan coast & outer peripherals of Kutch. Also, a cyclonic circulation is marked over North Odisha and Chhattisgarh. An east-west trough joining these systems has a shear zone, tilting southward with height. Under the influence of these meteorological conditions, monsoon is active over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat and along West Coast.
Monsoon trough has shifted well south of its normal position for the last 3 days. Therefore, subdued monsoon activity is witnessed over plains of North India including the capital city Delhi. In association with the western disturbance, a cyclonic circulation is forming over North Pakistan and border areas of Punjab and North Rajasthan. This will pull the monsoon trough northward anytime soon in the next 24hr. Monsoon activity will substantially increase over North India and Delhi on 09th and 10thJuly.
In the meantime, a fresh cyclonic circulation is expected to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal in the proximity of North Coastal Odisha in the next 24hr. This feature will meander over the same region for the subsequent 48hr. During this period, the circulation will consolidate and turn in to a low pressure area on 10thJuly over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining region of West Bengal and North Odisha. Low pressure will strengthen further, possibly to a well marked low pressure in the subsequent 24hr. The monsoon system will start moving westward to come partly over land and rest over the sea on 12thJuly. Prognostication beyond these timelines will lack confidence and therefore, will be reviewed after 48hr.
Likely formation of the monsoon system assures continuation of weather activity in the 3rd week of July, over many parts of the country. Seasonal rainfall has already achieved ‘break even’ and quickly covered the deficit of opening monsoon month. Having surplus rains, more probably over the central and western parts and normal spells elsewhere is quite likely. Temporal and spatial spread of the monsoon activity across most parts of the country, in particular over the rainfed areas, will be adequate to the needs of agriculture sector.