Yet another low pressure area is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) shortly. The previous system, which travelled up to Rajasthan and Gujarat, is likely to weaken and cross across the border, in the next 48hours. Close on heels, this low pressure is evolving, once again over similar area as the last system, over BoB. This system may not be strong enough unlike its predecessor and may also change track and timelines.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over northeast and adjoining east central BoB, extending up to mid tropospheric levels. This feature will become more organized and also shift over north and northwest BoB. Cyclonic circulation is likely to percolate to the lower levels and become a low pressure area, with in 48 hours. The low pressure will form in the close proximity of coastline of Odisha and West Bengal and therefore may not stay long over the sea. It may breach the coast on 20thSeptember itself and move over to Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand, the next day itself.
The low pressure is not likely to track, far to the west over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra region. Rather, after crossing the coast, it may become a broad cyclonic circulation, mainly over the eastern states of Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. The weather system may shift as circulation towards the foothills of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh by 22nd /23rd September. Also, unlike the previous system, it may not be strong enough to trigger wide spread intense rainfall over the eastern and central parts of the country.
States of West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Bihar will be the chief beneficiaries. Peripheral regions of East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh will also have a fair share of monsoon activity. Northeastern states will have fairly widespread rainfall for 3-4 days, after the system moves inland on 20thSeptember. The cyclonic circulation and the monsoon trough, together will keep the rainfall activity going, albeit mostly moderate, over most parts, outside north India. Southern parts of the country may also receive scattered moderate rains during this period of activity.