A cyclonic circulation is marked over the North Arakan Coast and adjoining parts of Western Myanmar. This is likely to move west-northwest and emerge over North Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh, in the next 24 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region. The system will get organised further and may become well-marked in the subsequent 24 hours. Monsoon activity will turn vigorous over eastern states and Bangladesh.
Earlier, a super typhoon Yagi had struck Hainan (China) last week. Later, the storm struck North Vietnam on last Saturday and wrecked large parts, inflicting casualties. The remnant of the weakened typhoon travelled slowly across Laos and the east & central parts of Myanmar. The diffused cyclonic circulation tracked further eastward and reached the Arakan Coast over North Myanmar. The system will merge with the pre-existing cyclonic circulation over ‘Head Bay, and Bangladesh. Following this, a low pressure will form over the same region. The tail end of the monsoon trough dipping over the north and northeast Bay of Bengal will further support the accentuation of the system.
Once the system turns into a low-pressure, it is likely to consolidate further. The well-marked system will meander over North Bay and adjoining parts of Bangladesh, Gangetic West Bengal and North Odisha. The peripherals of the weather activity will reach parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, as well. The weather system is likely to affect this area between 13th and 16th September. The model accuracy drops after a lead time of 4-5 days. A fresh call needs to be taken after about 48 hours to comment about further track, timelines and intensity of the system.
Image Courtesy: Britannica