Yet another low-pressure area is likely to form over the North and Northwest Bay of Bengal shortly. A brief pause and the monsoon becomes active again, a repeat of the previous weather cycle. Central and eastern parts will have another round of monsoon bursts, 2nd one in quick succession. Western and southern regions will largely remain deprived of any decent showers. Some pockets along the Western Ghats, particularly the Konkan region, may come in for yet another deluge, later in the week.
Remnant of the earlier low-pressure area is recurving and now lies as a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh. This weather system will weaken further and also move further eastward. Finally, the diffused cyclonic circulation will merge with yet another low-pressure area, likely to form over the Bay of Bengal.
The previous low-pressure area revived the dying monsoon, covering eastern and central parts of the country. A repeat performance is likely, commencing midweek and going on till midweek next. A cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Northwest Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast on 12th September. On the merger with the remains of earlier cyclonic circulation, the weather system will become better organized and possibly turn into a low-pressure area over the same region, on 13th September.
The broad cyclonic circulation of this low pressure will develop an east-west oriented trough, more commonly referred to as a shear zone, roughly along 20°N. This will also dictate the positioning of the eastern half of the monsoon trough, well south of its normal position. The trio of low pressure, monsoon trough and shear zone will control and direct the monsoon activity for over one week. Heavy rainfall belt will extend from Coastal Odisha in the east to Konkan & South Gujarat on the West Coast, albeit in a staggered manner. Active to vigorous monsoon conditions will sweep Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Flanks on either side of the track, covering Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh will also get their complimentary share of monsoon downpours.
Like the previous weather systems, this monsoon low also will not travel deep over the western and northern parts of the country. Parts of Saurashtra & Kutch, West Rajasthan and the hinterland of Punjab and Haryana may escape the direct influence of the weather system. South Coastal Gujarat and its central parts will witness heavy and moderate showers, respectively. Parts of South and Southeast Rajasthan may also get few conciliatory showers for a day or so before the system recurves to trace the path, similar to its predecessor.
