Fresh low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal, very soon. Precursors of this system as cyclonic circulation, has already lashed rain and thundershowers over Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh. Rainfall belt will extend further its spread and intensity. Active monsoon conditions are likely over Eastern and Central parts of the country during this week.
Earlier, cyclonic circulation was marked over West Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) which persisted for nearly 3 days. It has now shifted over West Central and adjoining Northwest BoB. Another cyclonic circulation, as remnant of cyclone Noru, had entered Northeast BoB. This feature has now merged with the pre existing circulation over BoB. A broad cyclonic circulation is marked over BoB, off Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast. Under the combined influence of these two systems, a low pressure area may form, anytime soon over Northwest BoB.
The low pressure will remain mostly over sea on 03rdOctober. Next day, on 04thOct, it is expected to move across Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coast, still remaining partly over sea and rest over land. The subsequent day, weather system will be located completely over land. Finally, the low pressure will move to North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Southwest Uttar Pradesh. The recurving track of the system will slow it down considerably. Active monsoon conditions will prevail over Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand , Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh between 03rd and 05thOct. Further movement of this system will extend the rainfall belt, more intense and large spread, over North Madhya Pradesh, Southwest and West Uttar Pradesh and mountainous state of Uttrakhand between 06th and 07th October. Hazardous weather conditions are likely over Uttrakhand and foothills of West Uttar Pradesh. Inclement weather conditions will start easing out from 08thOctober and very light weather activity is expected on 08th and 09thOctober.
Likely in situ formation of another system, may bring another burst of rains over central, northern and eastern parts of the country. Southwest monsoon normally withdraws from East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, most parts of Maharashtra and some pockets of West Bengal by 10th Oct. In view of likely meteorological developments, monsoon stay is expected to be extended in to 2nd half of October.
