Fresh Low Pressure Area Likely Next Week, Monsoon To Press On Over Most Parts

A  fresh low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal(BoB) around middle of next week.  Unlike June which hosted only one low pressure area, this fresh system will form over Head BoB, in quick succession to the earlier one on 11^thJuly over the northwest BoB. A cyclonic circulation is forming over top region of BoB on 20^thJuly and is likely to organize further in to a low pressure area on 21^st July over the same region.

Southwest Monsoon has gone a little subdued( except along West Coast) and this phase will soon get over with the monsoon trough establishing along the Indo Gangetic plains.  With initial signs appearing on the 17^th July, it become significantly marked on 18^th July and runs across Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with flooding rains at few places,  is expected over Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh on 18^th July. Thereafter, this trough dips in the Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation is likely to form on 20^thJuly over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh and West Bengal. This will rapidly organize to turn in to a low pressure area on 21^st July over the same region, partly over land and the rest over Sea. This weather system will move inland across West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra over the next 4 days.

Intense and wide spread weather activity will commence on 20^th itself over the coastal states to start with later spreading over most parts of neighboring states. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha between 21^st and 23^rd July. Further travel of this system will activate the monsoon trough once again to cause another spell of heavy rains over Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. As it usually happens, the formation of this system will activate vigorous monsoon conditions over Konkan region between 19^th and 24^thJuly. Mumbai will possibly head for second spell of heavy to very heavy rains of this month during this period.

Southwest Monsoon is running with a seasonal deficiency of 6% ( 01^st June-16^th July) and the month of July by itself is having a shortfall of 25% rainfall. This active spell of monsoon between 20^th July and 31^st July, without any long and significant break in between, is expected to sail the monsoon closer to its normal rainfall. Active monsoon conditions are also likely to spill over to the 1^st week of August.