A low pressure area, 5th in the month of August, has formed over the North Bay of Bengal and is supported by cyclonic circulation extending up to 25,000 feet. It is likely to remain stationary over the same area and become well marked in the next 24 hours. Thereafter the weather system is likely to track west-northwest across West Bengal, North Odisha, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh, Northeast Madhya Pradesh, South Uttar Pradesh, Northwest Madhya Pradesh, and East Rajasthan over the next 5 days. Heavy rainfall is likely in Odisha and West Bengal from August 24th-26th, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh on August 25th, 26th, and 27th, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh from August 26th-28th, and Rajasthan on August 28th and 29th.
Statistically, 2-3 low pressure areas form over the Bay of Bengal during July and August each, and in 2020, more than 4 such systems in a month are not at all common. The records suggest that 4 or more systems in August form only once in about 12 years. 2020 is an exception wherein the Bay of Bengal has already hosted 5 such systems. Just to remind that month of July had remained devoid of any such system which also can be considered as ‘rare’.
The seasonal tally of Southwest Monsoon stands at 107% (Above Normal) till date and is not expected to drop during this week. On the contrary, it may add another 1-2%. Merely 14% of the total area is deficient and the rest normal or above till date. Except for West Uttar Pradesh, all the sub-divisions in the plains are normal or above. Only West Uttar Pradesh is marginally short (-21%) and will possibly become normal during this week.
With even spatial distribution of rainfall, this is one of the best monsoon being witnessed in the recent past. It is expected that the coming month of September may not be as wet as August but still promises to be on track for decent rains.