October is a month when seasonal changes occur and is a favourable time for cyclone development. India, which is exposed to nearly 10% of the world’s tropical cyclones, has already witnessed the devastating cyclone Hudhud in mid October and is gearing up to brace cyclone Nilofar by the end of October.
On an average, 4-5 tropical cyclones form in the Indian seas – Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal - each year, and few of these storms are intense enough to be classified as very severe or super cyclonic storms. In these Indian seas, cyclonic storms are associated with heavy rains, thunderstorm, high tide and intense winds that cause shocking destructions in the coastal areas.
However, these 4-5 cyclonic storms are a small part of the 14 cyclonic disturbances that North India Ocean observes during a year.
Moreover, out of the storms forming in the Arabian Sea, almost 50% of the storms do not sustain over sea water due to the reasons responsible for their development and growth stage i.e.
a) A cold sea surface temperature
b) Strong vertical wind shear
The rest of the cyclonic storms forming in the Arabian Sea pose threat to Oman, Pakistan and India with 23% of them recurving towards Gujarat.
Current situation in Arabian Sea
Arabian Sea is comparatively less prone to cyclonic storms than Bay of Bengal since westcentral and north Arabian Sea see a colder sea temperature than other surrounding areas. This cold sea surface temperature is not conducive for the development and sustenance of the cyclonic storm.
At present, the coastline of Saurashtra, Kutch and North Eastern Arabian Sea indicates relatively colder temperature that is not conducive for a long sustenance of cyclone Nilofar.
