Forecast for below normal rain fortified

The Indian Meteorological Department in its second phase of long range forecast update for Southwest Monsoon 2014, released on Monday, has put rainfall for the country as a whole at 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 4%. Earlier in April, IMD had put it at 95% of the LPA ± 5%. This shift in rainfall figures further strengthens the fact that Monsoon rain in India is going to be deficit as reiterated by Skymet.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9%. The trend given by IMD is in good agreement with the Monsoon foreshadow released by Skymet in April, where we had put July rainfall at 94% of the LPA and August rainfall at 98% of the LPA.

Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over Northwest India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over Northeast India all with a model error of ± 8%, said IMD.

Though the rainfall figure of 93% for the country as a whole might not look alarming, the region wise rainfall does raise a lot of apprehension. For example the season rainfall given by IMD for Northwest India is 85% of the LPA with a model error of ± 8% which means it could fall down to 77% taking the model error into consideration at worst. This certainly would create drought situation in a lot of places in Northwest India.

This is exactly what Skymet had said in its Monsoon Foreshadow released in April. We had said that majority of subdivisions in Northwest (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) will observe weak rain during the whole season. Some places may also witness severe drought conditions.

Interestingly, below normal and deficit rain put together by IMD is now 71% as opposed to 56% earlier. The following table shows a comparison between what IMD had forecast in April with their latest forecast.

Category	Rainfall Range(% of LPA)	Latest Forecast(%)	April forecast(%)
Deficit	< 90	33	23
Below Normal	90-96	38	33
Normal	96-104	26	35
Above Normal	104-110	3	8
Excess	> 110	0	1

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for June, July, August and September released in April were:

• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 1% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% OF LPA)
• 34% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 40% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 25% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

Other than Northwest and West Central India, Northeast is another region that will witness below normal rain, according to Skymet. However, it will not make much of a difference as rain deficit to the tune of 10 to 15% can easily get absorbed due to its terrain with its varying heights from valleys to high hills.