The low-pressure area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB ) intensified to a depression yesterday and further to a deep depression today morning. This is centred around 9 Degrees North and 89 Degrees East, about 500 km west-southwest of Port Blair. Winds are of the order of 55 kmph around the centre of the system.
Deep depression is placed in a favourable environment of very warm sea surface temperature (31-32 degrees) and very low vertical wind shear (12-18 kmph). Flaring convective clouds are seen wrapping around the low-level circulation, as inferred from the satellite imagery.
The weather system will move northwestward with a speed of about 15 kmh. The potential for rapid development into a cyclone is very high. Tropical storm Mocha may surface anytime, latest by evening today. Chances of further intensification to become severe are high.
Tropical storm Mocha will keep moving northwestwards, remaining south of the subtropical ridge, till the 12th evening. Thereafter, the steering current is likely to move the storm more northward and later recurve northeastwards to head for North Myanmar and South Bangladesh. As stated earlier, it is likely to make landfall between Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) on Sunday morning. The precise location and the timings of the strike will need close monitoring for another 36hr.
Cyclone Mocha will keep a safe distance from the Indian coastline. However, the sheet of clouds will start reaching the coast and interiors of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal tomorrow onwards and last till 15th May. Coastal winds may become gusty. Light rain is also expected in some places. No damaging impact is likely anywhere across the Indian states. However, the sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen, boats, trawlers and vessels are advised not to venture into the troubled waters till 15th May.
