Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulation, maiden low pressure area of monsoon season has formed over wider region covering parts of West Bengal, South Jharkhand and North Coastal Odisha. Monsoon system is manifested as cluster of clouds in the satellite imagery, albeit with still scope of better organization.
The cyclonic circulation of the system extends up to mid tropospheric levels. Low pressure has dragged the monsoon trough far south of its normal position. Also, there is another cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Arabian Sea. Joining these two systems, an east-west shear zone will extend from Gujarat to Odisha.
This weather system will be slow moving and likely to shift across central parts of the country. For the next 3 days, between 04th & 06th July, fairly widespread moderate rainfall with isolated heavy spells can be expected over Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Peripheral of the system will affect Telangana and North Interior Karnataka. The subsequent 3 days, from 07th to 09th July, heavy rainfall is expected over North Maharashtra, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, South Gujarat and Saurashtra. Following 2 days will find scattered showers over these parts with reduced intensity.
The core rainfed zone of central parts like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat are running deficit by 30%-35%. This massive wet spell will possibly reduce these margins and may break even in the next 7-10 days.
As the monsoon trough will continue south of its normal position, states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal are going to be left out, without any significant rains. Shortfall of Uttar Pradesh, currently 40%-45%, will grow further along with Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.
There are chances of another Monsoon system coming up, close on heels of the present one. More powerful system is expected in the Bay of Bengal, emerging around 10th July. It will traverse a repeat path of the current system.
More deluge is likely over the central parts during next week. Northeast India will have a respite from heavy rains. As it is, there has not been any downpour during the last 2-3 days. Improved weather conditions for the next 7-10 days will provide recovery window and flood waters are expected to recede.
