Winter season is now going to end soon. But we have not seen any significant rain activity over northern plains until now. Winter rains are common during month of November and December as well as during January. Scattered light rain occurred over Northern parts of Punjab, Haryana and Northwest Uttar Pradesh and isolated over Delhi and Rajasthan between January 11 and 14.
Reason of lack of winter rain can be attributed to the lower intensity of Western disturbances. Whenever an intense Western disturbance approaches western Himalayas, it usually induces a cyclonic circulation over Northern Plains which is responsible for winter rain.
A series of Western disturbance are expected to approach Western Himalayas between January 19 and 26. A cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over Haryana and North Rajasthan around January 23rd. Rain is expected over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Rajasthan between January 23rd and 25th. There may be isolated intense spells during this period. This maybe the first and last widespread rainfall over Indo-Gangetic plains and parts of central India.