Pictorial description of possible cyclonic storm
India has not witnessed any cyclonic storms during May since last two years. However, a tropical storm is likely to reappear over Indian seas in May 2016.
With the commencement of May, entire Indian East Coast along with Bangladesh and Myanmar becomes vulnerable to cyclonic storms.
According to Skymet Weather, a cyclonic circulation is expected to develop in extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea by May 13.
Thereafter, the system is likely to initially intensify into a low-pressure area by May 14 or May 15 and then into a depression by May 16.
Further retaining strength for few days, the system may intensify into the first cyclone of the season by May 19. If this cyclone comes into the existence it will be named as ‘Roanu’.
Though the upcoming weather system poses a definite threat to Indian coastline but weather models are indicating that it may finally head towards Bangladesh or Myanmar coast.
Favourable weather conditions for cyclone
According to Skymet Weather, weather conditions are favourable for the formation of cyclonic storm in Bay of Bengal.
One of the prominent features is the active Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in Indian Ocean that will trigger the formation of cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal.
Other parameter required is the adequate sea surface temperatures that are quite favourable at present.
Moreover, Monsoon current also hovers just around the Indian seas during this time of the year.
Importance of cyclonic storms in May
Such systems during May hold great relevance for the country as they are primarily responsible for ushering in the Southwest Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Accordingly, this brewing system will also lead to early onset of Monsoon 2016 over Bay Islands between May 18 and May 20.
Cyclones in India
Cyclone Laila in Bay of Bengal in 2010
India witnesses formation of cyclonic storms twice in every year. First is during pre-Monsoon season in April and May. While, other is during post-Monsoon season in October and November.
The frequency of these storms are more in Bay of Bengal as compared to Arabian Sea. Between 2001 and 2013, country has witnessed 11 cyclones in May. Out of this, 7 cyclones were developed in Bay of Bengal and 4 were formed in Arabian Sea.
Cyclone Mahasen in Bay of Bengal in 2013
75% of the cyclones forming in Bay of Bengal head towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The ones that move towards Indian coast affect Odisha or Andhra Pradesh coast.
Cyclone Mahasen had developed in Bay of Bengal on May 11, 2013 and made landfall over Bangladesh. Prior to this, Cyclone Laila in Bay of Bengal had formed on May 18, 2010 and had hit Andhra Pradesh coast.
Image credit: en.wikipedia.org
