The Southwest Monsoon was a little delayed and arrived over Kerala four days after its official onset date of June 1. However, it picked up pace and covered the last post of west Rajasthan by June 26, which is almost 2 weeks prior to its onset date over the region. Despite its delayed start, Monsoon rains were good across the country due to which June ended with a countrywide surplus of 16%.
As of today there are three pockets – Bihar, Rayalaseema and Marathwada – which are deficient. But this was not the case from the onset of Monsoon. According to the data available with Skymet, Marathwada by the middle of June was surplus by 26%, while Rayalaseema was surplus by 20%. Bihar was however, deficient by a whopping 55%.
By the end of June some good rain pulled down the deficiency in Bihar to 28%. While Marathwada and Rayalaseema began to observe subdued rain and became deficient by 17% and 2%, respectively.
July rains have also not been good for Rayalaseema and Marathwada. Whereas in case of Bihar the rainfall amounts have been swinging between normal and deficient.
For instance, Bihar saw the deficiency reduce to 15% by the middle of July, which is considered normal (+/- 19 is considered normal). Thereafter, the sub-division has been performing poorly. Till July 28 Bihar was deficient by 28%.
Similarly, the sub-divisions of Marathwada and Rayalaseema have not been doing well. According to the data available with Skymet, the deficiency in Marathwada has mounted to a whopping 53%, while Rayalaseema is deficient by 33%.
This deficiency is not something new or very scary. Monsoon characteristic is such that even the best of the season will leave some deficit regions, while the worst of the Monsoon season will see some areas doing very well.
In recent past, the years 2010, 2011 and 2013 have been good with normal or above normal rain. The Long Period Average (LPA) in 2013 was 106%, while the LPA for 2010 and 2011 was 102%.
Despite good rains in 2013 Bihar still saw a deficiency of 30%. Jharkhand and entire Northeast India was deficient by 23% and 35%, respectively.
In 2011, Northeast was deficient by 25 to 30%. Some pockets like Telangana and North Interior Karnataka observed below normal rain.
In 2010 West Bengal was deficient by 31%. Bihar and Jharkhand were also deficient by 22% and 40%, respectively.
In 2009, which was a severe drought year Karnataka and Saurashtra and Kutch were surplus by 25%. Odisha and Tamil Nadu observed normal rain.
By the above examples we can understand that even in the best case scenario rains will never remain uniform across the country. Even in the current season where the El Nino scare is looming large, good Monsoon rains are defying that effect.
According to Skymet, the countrywide deficiency has come down to 3% and about 80% of the country’s total area is observing normal or excess rain. There are chances of good rain across the country for the next two weeks as well. Weathermen at Skymet say that August and September are going to observe normal rain.
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