The state of Gujarat broadly stays at a safe distance from the reach of western disturbances. Most parts of the state remain dry during the rainiest winter months of Jan and Feb. However, the approach and passage of western disturbance and their induced systems over Rajasthan do change the wind pattern over the state, quite frequently. This feature results twist in the mercury levels, and more so the night temperatures.
A western disturbance has just cleared the northern mountains. The cold winds in the rear are now sweeping parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. The night temperatures are mostly in the low teens, including the state capital Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. The other major towns like Baroda, Deesa, Amreli, Bhuj and Rajkot have all recorded temperatures between 10°C and 13°C. The coastal town of Naliya always remains an exception with a single-digit minimum temperature.
A western disturbance is approaching Rajasthan and Punjab on 10th Jan. As a prelude, a cyclonic circulation is appearing over parts of North Rajasthan on 09th Jan. Yet another cyclonic circulation is coming up over coastal parts of the North Arabian Sea and adjoining Pakistan region around the same time. This feature will shift inland over parts of North Gujarat and adjoining South Rajasthan on 10th Jan and ultimately merge with the pre-existing circulation over that region. During this sequence of events, the winds will broadly be southwesterly over the state of Gujarat, drawing a lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea and fueling the western disturbance over the north.
This change in the wind profile will cause a see-saw of temperatures over north and central Gujarat covering Ahmedabad, Baroda, Anand, Surendranagar, Deesa, Mehsana, Palanpur and Sabarkantha regions. The minimum temperatures are likely to rise by 3-4°C between 08th and 11th January and drop thereafter. The minimum temperatures are likely to reach in the mid and high teens over many parts. The day temperatures also may touch or cross 30°C at Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Baroda, Anand, Amreli, Kandla, Patan and Kheda. Sky conditions will mostly remain clear and plenty of sunshine is likely during this period.
